[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N26W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-26W AND FROM
THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF MAINLY S OF 26N W OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 29N87W. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA
EARLY SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE W GULF SUN THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE N GULF WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INCLUDES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER NW
HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W ALONG 18N78W TO OFF THE
NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 14N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING CUBA...
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN NIGHT BECOMING A
FRONTAL TROUGH WITH FRESH N TO NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO
STRONG E TO NE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN
EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN NIGHT BECOMING A FRONTAL
TROUGH. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE WITH SOME CLEARING TUE NIGHT
AND WED.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W TO 24N66W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF
THE ENTIRE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A
REINFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC FROM 30N61W TO 24N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W.
A SECOND SHARPER UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 32N40W TO 7N36W AND IS INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 18N30W TO
27N37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SHARP UPPER TROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E REACHING FROM 32N51W TO
24N59W WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W BY SUN
NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY PORTION
OF THE FRONT SUN THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGE MOVE INTO THE REGION SUN THROUGH MON. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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