[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 6W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO TEXAS. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N E OF 86W TO
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PATCHES OF FOG ARE ACROSS THE NW
GULF N OF 26N W OF 92W. THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND A SECOND STRONGER 1025 MB HIGH
IN THE W ATLC. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NW GULF LATE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ON WED THEN WEAKEN AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INCLUDES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE W
ATLC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC OVER NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W OVER JAMAICA
NEAR 18N80W TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 18N AND N OF 18N W OF
FRONT TO 81W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS N HAITI THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY
A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF
26N AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W
ALONG 27N52W TO 24N59W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 22N68W
TO NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N73W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W AND 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033
MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT E REACHING FROM 32N47W TO 25N48W WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE TO 22N53W TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
E ALONG 30N THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO NE OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED AFTERNOON
REACHING FROM 32N72W TO SE FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES FROM NEAR 32N67W TO 25N72W TO E CUBA EARLY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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