[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N23W 1N37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-24W AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC TO ALONG THE
N GULF COAST WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW
ALOFT. A REINFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W ALONG 24N84W TO 26N92W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR 1028 MB HIGHS OVER NE LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND REPORTS OF FOG ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N AND W OF 92W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SAT
AND SAT NIGHT THEN INTO THE W ATLC SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 20N73W TO 19N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 18N81W
TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEAR 15N84W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF
THE FRONT E OF 80W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E ACROSS HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
REMAINS STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SAT AND SAT
NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 71W
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT.
LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W ALONG 25N67W
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N73W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A REINFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 30N72W ALONG 27N75W
ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO
10N44W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 30W-
45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E REACHING FROM 32N58W ALONG 25N65W
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W BY SAT NIGHT WHERE THE S PORTION WILL
STALL AS THE N PORTION CONTINUES E. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SWEEP E AND MERGE WITH THE FRONT SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net