[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 6N14W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 1N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N35W TO 1N48W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC TO ALONG THE
N GULF COAST WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW
ALOFT. A REINFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA TO 23N85W TO 24N91W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
OVER S LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND REPORTS OF FOG ARE INLAND
AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND W OF 92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E FROM LOUISIANA TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE W
ATLC SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
TO 19N76W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 19N78W 18N82W TO
INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEAR 15N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT E ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TODAY AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND W OF 71W
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT OVER NW HAITI WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS AND W ATLC N OF 30N IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 25N65W
TO NW HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N73W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT AND
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A REINFORCING SURGE IN THE
FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 30N67W
ALONG 26N74W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W.
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 42W
N OF 10N AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-25N
BETWEEN 30W-40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W IS DOMINATED
BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH JUST W OF
THE AZORES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E REACHING FROM
32N56W ALONG 25N63W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W BY TONIGHT WHERE
THE S PORTION WILL STALL AS THE N PORTION CONTINUES E. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWEEP E AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
SUN. THE MERGED BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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