[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO
04N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N30W TO 01N41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N94W. 5-10
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. FURTHER E...10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COLD AIR IS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A CLOUD LINE
MOVING S. IT PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N84W TO THE NW GULF AT 26N93W. AIR
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE GULF ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 50'S WHILE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEY ARE IN THE 70'S. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SW GULF AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHERE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. BANDS OF SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO SE LOUISIANA. ALSO EXPECT THE
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO NE MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W TO N OF
JAMAICA AT 19N77W. A QUASI-STATIONARY CONTINUES TO 18N81W TO E
HONDURAS AT 15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF
FRONT TO INCLUDE E CUBA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. 20
KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...W
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO INCREASE DUE TO BOTH...TRADEWIND FLOW...AND
FRONTAL ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N64W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AT 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF
FRONT TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. AGAIN A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR IS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A CLOUD LINE MOVING S.
IT PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. A NEW
AREA OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE CLOUD LINE. A
1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 39N33W. FURTHER E A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 33N10W TO N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT
31N20W MOVING SE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N44W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 33W-
42W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N59W TO HAITI WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO REACH THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net