[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...THREAT OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN CAP BLANC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 06N11W TO 04N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N18W TO
02N27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 02S44W NEAR THE
COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 05N SOUTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD...AND FROM 04N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW REGIME FOLLOWS THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FAR
WEST OF TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THROUGH THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS...ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGHB...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 26N76W...BECOMING
MORE AND MORE ILL-DEFINED MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W...THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 17N83W...INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
AND CURVING INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES ACROSS
BERMUDA...TO 28N70W...TO CENTRAL CUBA...TO 20N83W...TO THE
COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 23N81W IN CUBA...TO 19N85W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO WESTERN
HONDURAS...TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 24N80W IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL
SALVADOR.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB TO 600
MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 26/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 26/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/
LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING...MVFR AT 1600 FEET. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD CUBA FOR PART OF THE TIME...AND
FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. EXPECT
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE FROM 160 NM TO 260 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. EXPECT WEST WIND
FLOW WHILE THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE ANTICYCLONIC MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF DAY
ONE. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT THE END OF DAY ONE...
BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...WITH A RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N46W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
06N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N23W AND 24N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N67W-TO-24N75W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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