[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHWEST ALONG COAST AND BETWEEN
ISLANDS IN...AGADIR...TARFAYA...CANARIAS...CAP BLANC...AND
CAP TIMIRIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 02N14W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 02N14W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO
03S20W...05S26W AND 04S36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 04N02W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW REGIME FOLLOWS THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TOWARD ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND 23N77W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGVX...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST IS DISAPPEARING WITH TIME. BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL REMAINS
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 100W
IN THE U.S.A. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 27N70W...
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN
HONDURAS...ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 28N70W...TO CUBA NEAR
21N78W...TO 20N82W...TO THE COMMON BORDER AREA OF
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO EASTERN HONDURAS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
SOUTHERN HONDURAS...ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 21N78W...TO 20N82W...TO THE
COMMON BORDER AREA OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW...AND 800 MB TO 600
MB NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD CUBA FOR PART OF THE TIME...AND
FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. EXPECT
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE FROM 160 NM TO 260 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. EXPECT WEST WIND
FLOW WHILE THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE ANTICYCLONIC MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF DAY
ONE. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT THE END OF DAY ONE...
BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...WITH A RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N46W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
08N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN
42W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO
22N23W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE BERMUDA-TO-23N75W COLD FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N44W TO 31N48W 29N52W 24N60W...
TOWARD HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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