[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N09W TO
02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-05S BETWEEN 38W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. FURTHER E...15-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE NW GULF HIGH TO DISSIPATE WHILE A 1033 MB HIGH
MOVES TO E TEXAS. 10-15 KT N TO NE WINDS WILL THEN BE OVER THE
GULF WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF
FRONT TO INCLUDE OVER W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. 20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH TRADEWIND FLOW
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE
ISLAND FROM W DUE TO THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF FRONT TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N50W TO 25N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AT 42N38W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N43W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
30N65W TO E CUBA WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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