[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W AND 02N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N17W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 34W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY FROM 30W WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE SOUTH OF 25N. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 25N NORTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH PARTS
OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
TEXAS BIG BEND ALREADY...ALONG 101W/102W NOW.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KGVX AND KXIH.

IFR...KGLS.

MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGRY...KEIR...KMIS...
AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN HARLINGEN AND WESLACO. MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IFR/MVFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
AREAS...WITH LIGHT RAIN AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE.
MVFR IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS...IFR IN PORT LAVACA. LIFR IN BAY
CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN SUGARLAND. IFR AT
ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON. LIGHT RAIN AND IFR IN TOMBALL. IFR
AND HEAVY RAIN IN HUNTSVILLE. MVFR AT LEAST ELSEWHERE IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. IFR IN
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
TEXAS...FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. RAIN
AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD
FRONT. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA...
IN NEW IBERIA...AND AT THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE AIRPORT ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MVFR AT THE NEW ORLEANS
LAKEFRONT AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA... IFR
FROM THE MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT TO GULF SHORES. LIFR IN THE
WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MILTON TO
PENSACOLA...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG...AND IN CRESTVIEW AND IN
VALPARAISO. IFR IN MARY ESTHER AND IN DESTIN. LIFR IN
MARIANNA...APALACHICOLA...TALLAHASSEE...AND IN PERRY. MVFR IN
PUNTA GORDA...AND AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW...NORTHWESTERLY MOVING
FROM CUBA TOWARD JAMAICA...SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST TO WEST FROM 74W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST WIND FLOW FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
21N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N65W NEAR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT MAY MOVE
WESTWARD...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO AND LA
ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILING...1200 FEET.
PUERTO PLATA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILING...1400 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ON TOP OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE FORECAST IS FOR AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO PUERTO RICO...
AND TO 15N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE
QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AS THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY
TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR 15N67W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES
VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WIND FLOW AT THE
END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N58W TO
23N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO
23N41W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N50W
22N60W...CURVING TO 21N64W...TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 31N44W 26N50W...
AND FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...IN GENERAL...FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 40W
WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N09W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
25N29W AND 13N37W. THE 34N09W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGH THAT ARE FROM 31N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 13W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
29N76W...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 22N38W
TO 10N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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