[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WILL MOVE TO THE
NE CONUS EARLY THU. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL
LEAD TO GALE-FORCE WINDS EARLY WED MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND ENTERS THE
E ATLC WATERS NEAR 06N10W CONTINUING SW TO 01N20W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S37W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM
04N TO 07N E OF 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S
TO 01N BETWEEN 20W AND 29W AND FROM 03S TO 07S W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER N CENTRAL ATLC
WATERS NEAR 36N47W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE PROVIDES
GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE SW
GULF WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N95W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE BASIN ALOFT AND ALONG
WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER S OF 27N. N
OF 27N...A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND A
WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 29N83W TO 24N96W.
DENSE FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED N OF THIS LINE...COINCIDING
WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. SURFACE
VISIBILITY IN THIS REGION MAY BE LESS THAN 3
MILES...VESSELS/BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. GENTLE TO RETURN
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW BASIN TUE EVENING REACHING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA
SW TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TUE MORNING. GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NW GULF EARLY WED MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PROVIDE
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY BASIN-WIDE...THE
EXCEPTION BEING PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN
HISPANIOLA AS SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUES WITHIN 170 NM OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF OF
MEXICO WED NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THU
MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N45W SW TO 23N61W WHERE IT
STARTS DISSIPATING SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THU WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SE
CONUS EARLY THU. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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