[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 04N12W AND 02N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N15W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W TO 03S28W...TO 03S32W...
02S36W...03S40W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
01N08W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 20W WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE SOUTH OF 25N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KVQT...KGRY...AND KEIR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN IN KINGSVILLE. IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI
NAVAL AIR STATION AND IN ROCKPORT. MVFR IN VICTORIA AND BAY
CITY...AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON...IN SUGARLAND...AND IN
TOMBALL. IFR AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. MVFR IN CONROE AND
HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW IBERIA AND PORT FOURCHON.
LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.
FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION/WHITING FIELD IN
MILTON.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW...NORTHWESTERLY MOVING
FROM CUBA TOWARD JAMAICA...SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST TO WEST FROM 74W EASTWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N62W 21N64W 18N65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N61W 21N65W 18.5N66.5W.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 22/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 22/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/LA
ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ON TOP OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE FORECAST IS FOR AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO PUERTO RICO...
AND TO 15N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE
QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AS THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY
TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO STAY
NEAR 15N67W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE BECOMES
VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WIND FLOW AT THE
END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO
25N61W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 23N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 31N44W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N44W TO 26N50W 24N56W AND
22N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 38W AND 50W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE 26N50W 23N57W 22N62W 19N67W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...IN GENERAL...FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 40W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N10W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
23N34W AND 13N45W. THE 34N10W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH SUPPORT
A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N12W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1017 MB LOW CENTER TO 33N11W AND 31N11W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO
28N80W...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO
14N30W TO 04N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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