[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
21/0600 UTC FOR 12 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA COVERING THE W ATLC AND
GULF OF MEXICO THEN EXTENDING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE
IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
SAT NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N32W 1N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-39W WITH CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE THE GULF TONIGHT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW
ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NE MEXICO. SKIES
ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF FOG BEING REPORTED IN THE SW GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUN WHEN IT WILL SHIFT FURTHER E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO
17N67W. THIS IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA E OF 73W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SW OF CUBA
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. STRONG WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

THE FRONT OVER PUERTO RICO IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E
OF THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING SAT NIGHT/SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE
N CARIBBEAN AND GULF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N74W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N60W TO A BASE OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N55W
ALONG 24N60W TO OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E
OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-26N AND WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
E OF 50W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1042 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E
REACHING 32N49W ALONG 22N59W TO PUERTO RICO SAT AFTERNOON THEN
FROM 32N43W 24N52W 22N58W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net