[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL 20/1200 UTC. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COVERS THE W
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO THEN EXTENDING S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN.
THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN SAT
NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S
OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 13W-21W AND FROM 1N-5N W OF 38W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO NE MEXICO. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N65W. THIS IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-71W
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC/GULF OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. STRONG WINDS IN THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AGAIN SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE SUN AND MON
NIGHTS.

HISPANIOLA...

THE FRONT OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PROVIDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
PORTION OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E OF THE AREA
WITH SKIES CLEARING SAT NIGHT/SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE N CARIBBEAN AND
GULF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N72W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
58W TO 16N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W
ALONG 25N58W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N65W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/210
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 21N-23N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE N PORTION
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E WHILE THE S PORTION WILL
BECOME STATIONARY FRONT 22N58W TO TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE W ATLC THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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