[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E OF
NEW JERSEY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SW N ATLC AND EXTENDS
S INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE S TO JUST N OF 30N BY EARLY SAT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON AND RESUME AGAIN EARLY SUN. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LIBERIA SW TO 01N21W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 30W AND FROM 03S TO 04N W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E
OF NEW JERSEY EXTENDS SW AND COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PROVIDING GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW BASIN-WIDE. THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE S WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...THUS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SE GULF AND
LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG E FLOW S OF 25N...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT.
NE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING IN PLACE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE NE TO E OVER ATLC WATERS THE REMAINDER WEEKEND...THUS
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STRONG AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E OF
NEW JERSEY COVERS THE W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS S INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT
IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND SUPPORTING NE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S
OF CUBA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...E OF JAMAICA AND OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE S TO JUST
N OF 30N BY EARLY SAT. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE PRES
GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON AND
RESUME AGAIN EARLY SUN AS THE HIGH MOVES NE TO E NORTH OF THE
AREA. IN THE NE AND SE CARIBBEAN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PERSIST. A NARROW AND ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH BASE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL EXTENDING SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE NE BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE...THUS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
LIFTING OF MOIST AIR SUPPORTED BY THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THESE SHOWERS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SAT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E OF
NEW JERSEY COVERS THE W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS S INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRES...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT FROM 30N56W SW TO 23N61W TO INLAND PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 19N. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE HIGH SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW W OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. STRONG HIGH PRES COVERS
THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS...EXCEPT S OF 20N W OF 40W. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND
AND WILL STALL MON MORNING OVER EASTERN ATLC WATERS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARLINE ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER ATLC WATERS NE OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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