[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS PULSING. THE
GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR TWO BRIEF
EVENING PERIODS NAMELY BETWEEN 19/1800 UTC AND 20/0000 UTC...
AND BETWEEN 20/1800 UTC AND 21/0000 UTC...WHEN 30 KT WINDS ARE
FORECAST.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N11W TO 05N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 10W-20W...FROM 01N-
04N BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N78W. THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SE TO S RETURN SURFACE FLOW. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE W OF 95W WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
25N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE SE TO 31N74W.
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY
FROM THE E TO SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS PULSING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE.
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W
TO S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 17N70W MOVING E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN
60W-66W. NE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
...WHILE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO BE NE OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GALE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PULSE.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE PREDOMINATELY S OF THE
ISLAND DUE TO TRADEWIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N59W TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. A STRONG 1043 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N31W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST
OF MOROCCO NEAR 30N10W. THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO CENTERS ARE PRODUCING NEAR GALE NE WINDS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND N OF 25N E OF 25W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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