[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE
PRESENT...

NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET
TO 11 FEET ARE PRESENT FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...AND TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...CAPE VERDE

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N16W TO
04N23W...03N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 01S19W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 01N24W AND 01N26W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N
BETWEEN 10W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
03N TO 01S BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM 01N TO 01S BETWEEN 40W
AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KXIH...KHHV...KGUL...KGBK...
KVQT...KGRY...KIKT...KVOA...AND KMIS. THE FOLLOWING STATIONS
WERE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE
PAST...AND THE CONDITIONS ONLY CHANGED DURING THE LAST HOUR
OR SO...KGLS...KVAF...KHQI...KEMK...KATP...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. IFR/MVFR IN HARLINGEN. MCALLEN AND
EDINBURG HAVE REPORTED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS...AND RECENTLY NO CEILINGS. LIFR IN ROBSTOWN. MVFR
IN FALFURRIAS AND IN KINGSVILLE. IFR IN ALICE. IFR IN VICTORIA.
MVFR IN PORT LAVACA. LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR/VFR IN PARTS OF THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LOUISIANA...MVFR/VFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR
IN NEW IBERIA AND IN PATTERSON. LIFR IN GALLIANO. MVFR IN BATON
ROUGE. LIFR AT THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE REGIONAL AIRPORT AND IN
SLIDELL. IFR/LIFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS.
MISSISSIPPI...IFR IN PASCAGOULA. FLORIDA...LIFR IN APALACHICOLA.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 58W WESTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE COLD
FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N65W...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N66W 26N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W...TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 25N59W TO 20N64W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.88 IN
BERMUDA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.37 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...MVFR WITH
VISIBILITY. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND
LA ROMANA...MVFR CEILING...1600 FEET. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTIAGO...RAIN AND IFR
CONDITIONS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND MVFR
VISIBILITY.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE.
WEST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE MORE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO AND
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME WEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...BRINGING NORTHWEST WIND TO
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO...AND THEN FROM THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO...
TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 25N15W...TO 20N23W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA
TO 20N16W AND 18N20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net