[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...THE 30-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS
OF NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10
FEET TO 12 FEET...FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 42 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...MADEIRA AND CANARIAS...AGADIR AND TARFAYA...
METEOR...AND CAPE VERDE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 06N10W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N16W TO
03N20W...03N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 01S33W...
REACHING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W
AND 48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND
14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
07N12W TO 04N25W 02N33W 02N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KEMK...KHQI...
KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KEIR...AND KVOA. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT LAVACA AND BAY CITY/ANGLETON-LAKE
JACKSON...AND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO CONROE.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA.
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR
IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING IN THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE COLD
FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N62W TO 25N66W TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W TO 27N69W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N59W 27N60W
22N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19.5N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.88 IN
BERMUDA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.37 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 800 MB TO 600 MB...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...IN THE SURFACE ISOBARIC
ANALYSIS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...MVFR AT
19/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA AT 19/0000
UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND
A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTO DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN...MVFR
CEILING. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTIAGO...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LIGHT RAIN WAS
BEING REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. PUERTO
PLATA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND MVFR CEILING.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE.
WEST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE MORE EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO AND
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME WEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...BRINGING NORTHWEST WIND TO
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO...AND THEN FROM THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 25N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N10W TO
25N15W 20N26W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 19N21W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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