[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA
CONTINUING OVER E ATLC WATERS FROM 25N15W TO 23N30W TO CENTRAL
ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N44W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1047 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES
GENERATES NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CANARIAS METEO-
FRANCE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
IN THE SW N ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM 10.5N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W EARLY SAT MORNING AND FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE S OF 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. SEE LATEST
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO
04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N27W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 06N E OF 25W AND
FROM 07S TO 02N W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH N
OF NEW YORK EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS...THE FAR WESTERN
ATLC AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS
PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E FLOW E OF
90W AND E TO SE FLOW W OF 90W. WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
E AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN  BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS...EXTENDING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION OF
THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE SW N ATLC
WATERS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
PROVIDES NE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA
CONTINUE TO MOVE E...THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE NW AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE...THUS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS FROM EARLY FRI MORNING TO SAT AFTERNOON. THE WIND FETCH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND S TO 14N AND WILL INCLUDE THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN STARTING STARTING
SAT MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE N TO NE CARIBBEAN MAY
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA BEING SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN GENTLE TRADEWIND FLOW ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES E JUST N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE W ATLC WATERS WITH BASE
OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS. THE EASTERNMOST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N63W SW TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF
IT N OF 23N. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRES IS
STARTING TO BUILD AND CURRENTLY SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
N OF 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. BY FRIDAY THE FRONTS WILL MERGE
AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW OVER THE SW N ATLC
WATERS...SPREADING S TO THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK...NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA
CONTINUING OVER E ATLC WATERS FROM 25N15W TO 23N30W TO CENTRAL
ATLC WATERS NEAR 30N44W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1047 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES
GENERATES NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CANARIAS METEO-
FRANCE AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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