[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN ALL THE
AREAS THAT ARE LISTED FROM 15N TO 35N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W AND 02N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N17W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 19W...REACHING 03S27W... TO
03S35W...TO 04S41W IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W...AND FROM
01N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
FROM 09N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE U.S.A.
FROM 92W...IOWA/MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...ETC...EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH 32N74W...TO ABACO IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N90W AND 22N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND
71W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM 29N81W TO 25N90W TO 22N98W.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N90W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KGHB...KATP...AND KDLP. KHHV WAS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST THREE HOURS...UNTIL THE
LAST OBSERVATION. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN BROWNSVILLE...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LIFR IN PORT
LAVACA. PALACIOS WAS REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CONDITIONS IMPROVED. LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR
IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. IFR IN SARASOTA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW...AND SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...
LIGHT RAIN. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1200 FEET. PUERTO
PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
ONE. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO WEST WIND FLOW AFTER
ABOUT 12 HOURS INTO DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW FOR THE REST
OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY
ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF
DAY TWO. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AS A TROUGH
EVENTUALLY SETTLES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND WILL
HAVE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AT THE END OF DAY ONE.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
36W AND 50W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N62W 21N68W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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