[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S
OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION N OF THE
EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SE
CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST N OF NAPLES ALONG
23N90W TO JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W. DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT IS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GIVING THE N GULF CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF S GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF AND COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE FRONT E OF 94W.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE E GULF THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE PREVAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N87W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THEN
DISSIPATE THU.

HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND CHANCES
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N77W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
TO BEYOND 32N60W. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT TO
70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1050 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N49W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THU BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE W ATLC ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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