[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE IS IN EFFECT FOR AN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W IN S TO SW FLOW WITH SEAS
TO 14 FT. THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AT 16/1800 UTC.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING A GALE NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR
THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...CANARIAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 02N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01S25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 02W-06W...AND FROM
01S-06S BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE
E GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N86W TO NE MEXICO AT 25N98W. A PREFRONTAL
SQUALL LINE EXTENDS AT 16/1500 UTC FROM S FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO
THE SE GULF AT 23N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SEVERE WEATHER WAS REPORTED OVER
VARIOUS FLORIDA LOCATIONS EARLIER. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT WHILE 10 KT S WINDS ARE S OF THE SQUALL LINE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 86W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 22N
WHILE THE N GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10 TO 30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS S OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 20N DUE TO PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA IN TRADEWIND FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
AXIS ALONG 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE THE
NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM W CUBA AT 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N90W WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE MOSTLY N OF THE
ISLAND DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS AT
16/1500 UTC FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 30N77W TO S FLORIDA AT
25N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. THE BASE OF A
VERY LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FROM 15N-30N
BETWEEN 10W-70W. A GALE IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC W OF 70W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N72W
TO W CUBA AT 23N80W WITH CONVECTION TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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