[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 13 FEET ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 15 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CALLED...
CANARIAS...CAPE VERDE...CAP BLANC...AND CAP TIMIRIS. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONSISTS OF...THREAT OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR GALE
TO THE NORTH OF 15N FROM 35W EASTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 07N11W TO 05N16W AND 04N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
04N18W...TO 02N22W AND 01N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 13N15W TO 07N17W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM FROM 03N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 02W AND 08W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W...AND FROM 02N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 05N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W
TO 27N90W TO 26N96W. A SQUALL LINE IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM 26N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 86W...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
PARTS OF FLORIDA...FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND 81W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N59W 27N66W 22N77W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KGRY...AND KIPN. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN ALSO IN
WESLACO. MVFR IN FALFURRIAS. LIFRIN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LOUISIANA...LIFR IN NEW IBERIA AND LAFAYETTE AND PATTERSON. MVFR
IN AMELIA/LAKE PALO. LIFR IN GALLIANO...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW
ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN GULFPORT. LIFR IN PASCAGOULA.
ALABAMA...MVFR IN MOBILE AND GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...IFR IN MARY
ESTHER. MVFR IN APALACHICOLA...TALLAHASSEE...AND PERRY. LIFR IN
BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. PUNTA GORDA...
LIGHT RAIN. THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...RAINSHOWERS WITH
THUNDER. NAPLES...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE IN THE
OBSERVATIONS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. MVFR AT THE KEY WEST
NAVAL AIR STATION DURING THE OBSERVATIONS OF THE LAST FEW HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
TO 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...
LIGHT RAIN. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1200 FEET. PUERTO
PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH WEST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST EARLY AND CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE AND
DURING ALL OF DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO.  THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-
TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. A COL POINT WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
HISPANIOLA WILL START WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE NORTHEASTERN
PART WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE MIDDLE OF DAY
TWO. THE COL POINT EVENTUALLY APPEARS TO BE FORECAST TO FORM ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO
25N50W TO 17N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 38W AND 54W.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 30N50W AND 26N56W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N56W TO 25N64W 25N68W AND
23N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 25N60W 22N77W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 21N53W 08N56W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N47W 23N70W STATIONARY
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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