[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE IN ALL THE
INDIVIDUAL AREAS THAT ARE LISTED ON THE MAP FROM 15N TO 35N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N15W TO
03N17W...AND 01N25W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 04N07W 03N20W TO 01N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALSO FROM 09N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE U.S.A.
FROM 92W...IOWA/MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...ETC...EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 72W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS
PASSING THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N74W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... TO 24N81W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
FROM 24N81W TO 22N87W AND 22N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE NUMEROUS STRONG FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 28N69W TO 25N72W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 400 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N74W TO 27N82W TO 22N91W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N92W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING TEXAS
COLD FRONT.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL LOUISIANA 1018 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...BEYOND 29N100W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR...KBBF...KEMK...KATP...AND KEIR. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN AND WESLACO. IFR IN
PORT ISABEL AND EDINBURG. MVFR IN MCALLEN. LIFR IN THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS...FROM FALFURRIAS TO ALICE AND THE
CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/
ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR IN PERRY...IN
BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AND AT THE
ST.PETE/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. IFR AT THE MACDILL AIR
FORCE BASE...AND IN SARASOTA. LIFR IN PUNTA GORDA...IN THE FORT
MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE AREAS
AROUND AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 24N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA
CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FOG AND A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1200 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
ONE. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO WEST WIND FLOW AFTER
ABOUT 12 HOURS INTO DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW FOR THE REST
OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY
ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF
DAY TWO. EXPECT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AS A TROUGH
EVENTUALLY SETTLES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND WILL
HAVE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AT THE END OF DAY ONE.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY
THE POINTS 32N29W TO 22N38W TO 23N49W TO 32N48W TO 32N29W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W TO 22N69W...TO
HISPANIOLA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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