[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING WAS IN EFFECT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W UNTIL 15/1500 UTC. NEAR GALE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR AN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 29N W OF 77W IN E TO SE FLOW WITH SEAS TO
12 FT. THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING A GALE NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS FOR
THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...CANARIAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 01N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 03W-13W...AND FROM
01S-02N BETWEEN 18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM SHOWS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS SE TO S RETURN FLOW WITH 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE E
GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE
NW GULF AND S TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...NE CUBA...COSTA RICA...N NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE
ISLAND FROM PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N53W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 23N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N61W TO
PUERTO RICO AT 19N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1040 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
38N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N47W.
A GALE IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE W ATLANTIC ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAHAMAS TO HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN SE SURFACE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER N
FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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