[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO TO THE W
ATLC EARLY TUE SWEEPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE NIGHT AND WED.
STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE NW
WATERS EARLY TUE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N24W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 14W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 15/2100 UTC IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS GIVING THE N GULF S TO SW SURFACE FLOW.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
26N E OF 88W. A SQUALL LINE IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 27N91W
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30.5N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 88W. THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE THEN MOVE E OF
AREA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE E GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE BASIN.
MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 19N W OF 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC TO THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N64W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 18N67W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E TIP OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUE.
THIS GIVE THE ISLAND CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH
ABOUT 400 NM N OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WELL N OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N49W ALONG 27N57W THEN WEAKENS ALONG 25N65W TO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT E OF
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO THE E TIP OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N62W TO 25N58W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E THAT IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
19N-25N BETWEEN 61W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH E
OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED
OVERNIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL ATLC
BY WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS EARLY
TUE AND SWEEP ACROSS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE NIGHT AND WED.
STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER THE NW
WATERS EARLY TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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