[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
10 FEET TO 14 FEET ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND
76W...FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHEAST-TO-
SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...
CANARIAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. THE
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...NORTHEASTERLY NEAR...
LOCALLY GALE IN...IRVING...AGADIR...TARFAYA...CANARIAS...CAPE
VERDE...CAP BLANC...AND CAP TIMIRIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N16W TO
03N21W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...AND CONTINUING TO
01S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 04N04W 04N13W...
AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 03N17W 01N25W 01N35W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 02N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 35W AND
50W 50W...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING
THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N90W 27N93W
25N97W...IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AWAY FROM THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR...KBBF...KGHB...AND KEIR.

MVFR...KMZG...KBQX...KGVX...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF...KATP...AND
KMIS.

VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS. IFR IN PORT
LAVACA AND VICTORIA. MVFR IN PALACIOS. MVFR IN BAY CITY AND
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR COVERS THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES TO HUNTSVILLE.
MVFR IN GALVESTON. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. OFF-AND-ON LIGHT RAIN IN NEW IBERIA.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE NEAR THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE
REGIONAL AIRPORT...NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA THAT
IS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
22N69W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 24N65W 20N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALONG 32N55W 27N66W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO CUBA NEAR
22N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N59W 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 20N73W NEAR
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ABOUT 220 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH...FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AT 15/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA
ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1300
FEET. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. NORTHWEST
WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...
BRINGING SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO PUERTO RICO FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING DAY TWO.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N81W...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N81W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N NORTHWARD FROM
76W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N46W 19N43W
14N42W...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO
DISSIPATED. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 37W
AND 43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 600 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC
CENTER. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 06N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W. A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 39N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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