[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA...

SOON TO HAPPEN...GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 14 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 12N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR
11N15W...TO 05N16W AND 04N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N18W TO
01N32W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...AND CONTINUING TO
03S44W IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 04N08W 05N14W 03N21W...AND 01N23W 01N29W 01N33W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 26W AND 50W...AND
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR...KBBF

MVFR...KBQX...KHHV...KGRY...KIPN...AND KMIS.

VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR AT GULFPORT AND
BILOXI. ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W
TO26N70W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 29N58W 24N65W 20N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALONG 32N55W 27N66W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO CUBA NEAR
22N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N59W 23N64W 20N73W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...ARE PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO
20N73W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ABOUT 220 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING...5000 FEET...AT 15/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AT 15/0000 UTC.
SANTO DOMINGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT 1600 FEET.
LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...MVFR AT
1400 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. NORTHWEST
WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...
BRINGING SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE TO PUERTO RICO FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING DAY ONE...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL REMAIN STATIONARY DURING DAY TWO.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N78W 31N80W...TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR 29N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N TO 32NBETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W
AND 43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 600 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC
CENTER. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W. A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 38N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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