[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N62W
ALONG 27N66W TO THE E TIP OF CUBA THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. THESE WINDS WILL
BE N OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE BEING PRODUCED BY
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 976 MB STORM LOW OFF THE
MARYLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE RIDGES OVER THE E CONUS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THIS IS ALSO GENERATING SEAS TO 30
FT...HIGHEST NEAR 32N70W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS
EVENING OVER THE FAR NW AREA N OF 29N W OF 78W. THESE WINDS ARE
BEING PRODUCED BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W
ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE N OF THE AREA WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
OVER THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N29W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-33W
AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E CONUS AND N
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT
08/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W
ALONG 27N96W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS THEN MEXICO NEAR BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. STRONG WINDS ARE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF EXCEPT W OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF TODAY THROUGH TUE
MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR NW AREA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE GULF N OF 18N W OF 80W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA TO 20N78W THEN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG
18N82W ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 12N84W. ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER FAIR WEATHER SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL DRIFT E LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE THEN STALLING FROM SW
HAITI TO W PANAMA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TUE NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF NW AND SW HAITI WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DRIFT E LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE STALLING OVER SW HAITI TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND AN INCREASE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER W ATLC TO OVER THE E CONUS IS
SUPPORTING A 976 MB STORM CENTER OFF THE MARYLAND COAST NEAR
27N67W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 08/1500 UTC NEAR
32N61W ALONG 27N64W TO 22N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST E
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM E
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N71W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N59W TO HAITI THIS EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WED MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH THE
STALLED FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GALE
FORCE WINDS TO THE NW PORTION TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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