[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
31N61W 25N65W 20N71W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14 FEET TO 25 FEET...THE HIGHEST NEAR
31N67W...TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W.

DEVELOPING GALE FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET
TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG
30N85W 27N90W 26N97W. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT TO 93W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N98W INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 9 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
LOCALLY NORTHEASTERLY NEAR GALE IN...AGADIR...CANARIAS...AND
CAPE VERDE EXPECTED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W TO 10N20W AND 05N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N21W TO
02N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 02S47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 11W AND
15W...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM
EASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD.

THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE U.S.A. FROM
KANSAS EASTWARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W...AND TO 27N95W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY AT 27N95W...AND IT CONTINUES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO... BEYOND 32N107W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N60W TO 26N64W AND 21N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT
21N70W AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE BORDER AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA...TO 28N67W AND 23N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N60W
23N67W 23N71W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA...TO
14N79W AND 09N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 1.11 IN BERMUDA. THE AIR TEMPERATURE REACHED 50
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR COLDER IN SEVERAL CITIES IN WEST CENTRAL
CUBA THIS MORNING.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HISPANIOLA. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS
CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND
SOUTHERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
PUERTO PLATA...NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED...WITH
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BECOMING
WEST WIND FLOW AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE ORIENTATION
OF A RIDGE WILL CHANGE DURING DAY ONE...THUS AFFECTING THE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING
DAY TWO. A RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
BEYOND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT WEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL MAKE THE WIND SHIFT
POSSIBLE. THE WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE...THAT IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF DOMINICA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
WILL MOVE TO 16N64W AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH DURING DAY TWO...AS THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER MOVES TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N26W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N40W 13N45W 11N54W AND
10N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE FROM 19N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
60W EASTWARD. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N26W.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N26W THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N50W AND
22N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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