[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC STORM WARNING...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 31N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST
OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W AND
N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. SEAS IN THE AREA OF STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 32 FT AND FROM 18 TO 25 FT IN
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM-
FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO
MOVE NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 E OF FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE REGION THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE BASIN
AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF 27N E OF 90W.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUE MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 04N08W
TO 03N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO
02S50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03S TO 01N BETWEEN
28W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 22N93W COVERS
THE ENTIRE BASIN AND PROVIDES VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND
FLOW. WATER VAPOR...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
UPPER LEVELS ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
WESTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF
27N E OF 90W TONIGHT...CONTINUING TO EARLY TUE MORNING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N65W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N65W
SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND
THE FRONT S OF 17N TO 85W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT
PROVIDE STABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST
TO START DISSIPATING LATE TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A FORMER COLD FRONT HAS
STALLED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STALLED THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 979 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO 31N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-
FORCE WINDS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
HAPPENING N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W AND N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM
E OF FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM-FORCE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE...HOWEVER
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 60W TONIGHT...STALLING S
OF 23N AND OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE SW N ATLC LATE TONIGHT...GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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