[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N30W
03N37W and 02N45W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 08N southward between 23W and
52W, and from 08N to 12N between 53W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery,
across the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the area, to the
SW corner of the area near 20N, along 96W/97W, at the coast of
Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGBK and KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco and McAllen, in Alice, at the NAS in
Kingsville and Robstown. LIFR in Rockport. MVFR in Victoria and
Port Lavaca and Galveston. MVFR from the Houston metropolitan
area to Conroe and Huntsville. IFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: LIFR in
Lake Charles. LIFR in Hammond on the NW corner of Lake
Pontchartrain. MVFR in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb.
MVFR and mist at the Stennis International Airport. MVFR in
Gulfport. ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: MVFR in the
Pensacola metropolitan area, and in Crestview, in the SE part of
the Panama City metropolitan area. MVFR in Marathon Key.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of 20N64W 18N70W
16N84W. Upper level easterly wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is inland, in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 16N to 20N between 84W and 90W. This area covers the
coastal waters from Honduras to Belize and Mexico, including in
the Gulf of Honduras.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 16N between
82W and 85W, in the coastal waters and inland for Nicaragua and
Honduras.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
24/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.18 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.15 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level E-to-NE wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible
across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains,
in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona and
Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. La
Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.
Santiago: MVFR for visibility, and mist. Puerto Plata:
light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an E-to-W trough
will cut across the area during day one. The trough will move
eastward, bringing NW wind flow across the area during day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start
with a ridge extending from the NE Gulf of Mexico to 20N60W in
the Atlantic Ocean. The ridge eventually will extend from 29N79W
in the Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico at the end
of day two. Expect NE-to-E wind flow across the area during the
next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows the 700
mb ridge pattern will be pretty much identical to the 500 mb
ridge pattern. Expect E-to-SE wind flow to move across the area
during day one. NE wind flow will move across the area during
day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N80W to Florida near 28N81W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 28N
northward from 78W westward.

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N54W, to 28N58W and 25N63W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm to 300
nm to the W and NW of the line that passes through 32N47W,
25N54W, 21N70W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of
the 32N47W 21N70W line.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N22W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward
from 40W eastward. A surface trough is along 28N24W 25N23W
22N22W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N to
28N between 17W and 25W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N40W to 30N45W, 26N52W and
21N56W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
26N northward, to the NW of the 32N54W 25N63W cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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