[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near
06N11W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N23W 02N37W
and 02N41W. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong from 05N
southward between 34W and 47W, from 01N southward between 47W and
50W, and from 06N to 10N between 50W and 60W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 07N between 25W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery,
across the entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, to the upper
Texas Gulf coast, to the coast of Mexico near 23N.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KGHB, KEIR, KMDJ, KVOA, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Valley, except in Port Isabel and
McAllen. MVFR in Hebbronville and Falfurrias, and in parts of the
middle Texas Gulf coast. LIFR in Rockport, in Victoria, and in Port
Lavaca. MVFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. IFR in
Galveston and Jasper. IFR in Ellington Field in Houston. IFR in
Tomball, Conroe, and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake
Charles. IFR in Patterson and Galliano. MVFR in Port Fourchon, in
Boothville, in Baton Rouge. LIFR from Hammond to Slidell. IFR at
the New Orleans Lakefront Airport. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Gulfport
and Pascagoula, in McComb and Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: MVFR in the
southernmost coastal areas, and in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at the
NAS in Pensacola and Crestview, and in Tallahassee. LIFR in Perry
and Cross City. LIFR at the Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of 20N64W 18N70W
16N84W. Upper level easterly wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

Broad low level and upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
from the coast of Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N to 20N between 85W and
90W. This area covers the coastal waters from Honduras to Belize
and Mexico, including in the Gulf of Honduras.

Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 12N to 17N between 79W and 84W, in the coastal waters and
inland areas of Nicaragua and Honduras, in an area of middle
level-to-upper level diffluent wind flow. Isolated moderate
elsewhere from 80W eastward, in areas of scattered-to-broken low
level clouds.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
24/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.18 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.15 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level E-to-NE wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible
across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains,
in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
VFR/no ceiling. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling.
Santiago: rain has ended for the moment. VFR/no ceiling. Puerto
Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an E-to-W trough
will cut across the area during day one. The trough will move
eastward, bringing NW wind flow across the area during day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start
with a ridge extending from the NE Gulf of Mexico to 20N60W in
the Atlantic Ocean. The ridge eventually will extend from 29N79W
in the Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico at the end
of day two. Expect NE-to-E wind flow across the area during the
next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows the 700
mb ridge pattern will be pretty much identical to the 500 mb
ridge pattern. Expect E-to-SE wind flow to move across the area
during day one. NE wind flow will move across the area during
day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from Florida, just to the north of Lake
Okeechobee, curving through 30N81W 32N80W, to the coastal waters
of southern North Carolina near 34N78W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 29N northward from 76W westward,
in surface southerly return flow, around a 1033 mb high pressure
center that is near 36N67W.

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N51W, to 28N56W and 25N63W. A surface
trough is along 25N63W 23N71W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 30N between 44W and 57W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere to the W and NW of the line that passes through 32N44W
25N53W 19N64W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N23W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward from
40W eastward. A surface trough is along 23W/24W from 22N to 28N.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 24N to 27N between 21W and 24W. Isolated moderate from 22N to
29N between Africa and 20W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N40W to 24N50W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
26N northward, to the NW of the 32N51W 23N71W frontal boundary.
A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 36N67W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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