[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Liberia Africa near
06N10W to 05N15W. The ITCZ begins near 05N15W and continues along
02N34W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
100 nm north of the ITCZ west of 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is anchored over Virginia extending southwest
reaching the Gulf providing a moderate anticyclonic flow across
the basin. Over the southwest Gulf, a 1018 mb low is centered
near 19N94W with an associated surface trough extending from the
low to 24N97W. Shallow moisture over this region may support
isolated showers in the vicinity of the low that is forecast to
dissipate within the next 24 hours. Seas are ranging from 2-3 ft
across the western half and 4-5 ft prevail across the eastern
half of the basin. Mainly moderate return flow will dominate the
basin through the middle of next week, except near the Straits of
Florida where fresh to strong easterlies will continue through
Monday night as the pressure gradient tightens across the area.
Seas will build up to 8 ft as a result.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery depicts strong dry air subsidence across the
basin supporting fair weather. A tight pressure gradient across
the north central Caribbean supports fresh to strong northeast
winds through the Windward Passage, in the lee of central Cuba,
and in the lee of the Dominican Republic. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail. Seas are measured at 4 to 7 ft
across the area as well, except up to 8 ft near the Windward
Passage and in the lee of the Dominican Republic. The hotspots of
stronger winds will persist through the upcoming weekend,
expanding in coverage to across most of the basin by the end of
the weekend through early next week as high pressure builds north
of the area. Seas will build to 6 to 10 ft by early next week as
the stronger winds increase in areal extent.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Showers
are expected to develop through the weekend as an upper-level
trough stalls over the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper-level trough over the west Atlantic supports a
cold front from 31N69W to 28N77W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 30N63W to 26N76W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of
these two features. A second surface trough extends from 31N57W
to 26N64W with scattered moderate convection. Surface ridging
anchored northeast of the Azores extends across the remainder
Atlantic forecast waters. A surface trough extends over the far
east Atlantic from 29N20W to 21N20W with isolated showers between
17W-22W. High pressure will build in across the basin from the
north during the weekend. This high will slide to the east
through the weekend with fresh to strong winds becoming confined
to the waters south of 25N through the day Saturday, then to
across the waters south of 27N Sunday into Monday as a new high
pressure builds in from the Carolinas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net