[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 30N91W 26N97W. Expect N gale-force winds
and sea heights reaching 8 feet to the NW of the cold front.
Gale-force wind speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Mexico during
the next 48 hours, as the cold front sweeps across the area.
Please read the Atlantic high seas forecast, that is listed
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details
about each area of gale-force winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The 12-hour forecast consists of NE gale-force winds and sea
heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet from 11N to 13.5N
between 74W and 77W. The 48-hour forecast consists of wind
speeds slower than gale-force. Please read the Atlantic high
seas forecast, that is listed under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near
05N09W to 03N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to
02N35W and 03N42W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 10N between 40W and 50W.
isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
High level clouds are to the south of the line that passes
through 19N19W 15N41W 12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
about the accompanying gale-force wind speeds and sea heights.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of 23N96W 25N95W 27N93W
30N89W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KMIS.

IFR: KEHC, KGHB, KGRY, KMDJ, KIKT.

MVFR: KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KGBK, KVQT, KATP, KVOA,
and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Brownsville and Port Isabel in the Lower Valley.
LOUISIANA: MVFR in the southern coastal plains. Rain around Lake
Pontchartrain, and in the SE corner of the state along the coast.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR mostly/some IFR in the southernmost coastal
sections of the state. ALABAMA: MVFR in the southernmost coastal
sections of the state. FLORIDA: rain and MVFR from Tallahassee
westward. IFR in Perry. MVFR from Cross City to sections of
Tampa/St.Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Naples. light
rain and MVFR at the Key West International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the northern Colombia, in the
part that is from 10N northward, northwestward, to the Yucatan
Channel. High level clouds are curving anticyclonically across
the open waters of the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low level to middle
level clouds.

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 74W in northern Colombia
beyond 83W in southern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation:
possible rainshowers from 11N southward from 80W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
18/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.59 in San
Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.19 in St. Thomas in the U.S.A. Virgin
Islands, 0.07 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in Freeport in the Bahamas,
and 0.02 in Curacao and Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and
in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low
level to middle level clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers.
MVFR. ceiling 2000 feet. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 2200 feet.
Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: few cumulonimbus clouds.
Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area for the first 24 hours. A ridge will settle
across Hispaniola, with broad anticyclonic wind flow for day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow
will move across the area, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of
Mexico ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E-to-
NE wind flow will move across the area, with an an Atlantic
Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper level cyclonic wind flow that was associated with a
central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough from 24 hours ago has
moved to the north of the area. A cold front passes through
32N37W and it reaches 31N40W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from 31N40W to 28N50W to 25N60W and 25N67W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 27N to
30N between 40W and 51W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to
the north of the line that passes through 32N34W 29N40W 26N50W
25N62W.

An upper level trough extends from a Morocco cyclonic
circulation center to 22N21W 18N27W, to a 16N43W cyclonic
circulation center. No significant deep convective precipitation
is apparent in satellite imagery.

A surface ridge passes through 32N31W beyond 24N17W, into
Africa, to the southeast of the dissipating stationary front.

A surface ridge passes through Bermuda, to 31N70W and 29N76W,
beyond central Florida. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the
north and northwest of the dissipating stationary front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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