[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida
Panhandle at 31N85W to 26N92W to Veracruz Mexico at 19N96W.
Northerly gale-force winds are over the western Gulf of Mexico
behind the front with seas 8 to 11 feet. A considerable amount
of cold air advection is also associated with the front. Please
read the Atlantic high seas forecast, that is listed under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

The tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building
north of the Caribbean and lower pressure associated with
climatological low pressure over Colombia will support gale-
force winds over portions of the south central Caribbean
beginning shortly at 19/0000 UTC, persisting until 20/1800 UTC.
Please read the Atlantic high seas forecast, that is listed
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends westward from the African coast near
06N11W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N30W to
03N40W to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the axis west of 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front with gale conditions are over the NW Gulf of
Mexico. See above. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
north of the front, north of 23N. 5-10 kt southerly winds are
south of the front, where air temperatures remain in the 70's
and 80's. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from
Central Florida to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W, with gale
conditions persisting over the SW Gulf, together with
convection.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Near gale force winds are along the coast of Colombia. See
above. Moderate to fresh trades cover much of the central and
Eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over
the Caribbean. No deep convection is currently observed over the
basin. Scattered showers are embedded in the trades streaming
across the Leeward Islands. In the upper levels, ridging is over
the Caribbean Sea with Strong subsidence.

...HISPANIOLA...

Deep-layer high pressure will maintain a relatively quiet weather
pattern over the island for the next several days. Subsident air
aloft will produce drying over the area through Tuesday with
only a few passing showers in the tradewind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends SW from 31N39W to 26N54W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the
front, east of 50W. High pressure centered near the Azores will
be reinforced by a new high pressure ridge moving eastward from
the northwest Atlantic. The resultant ridge will continue to
dominate the remainder of the Central and Eastern Atlantic
through the early part of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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