[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is moving quickly southeastward over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico this morning. Strong high pressure over the central
United States behind the front will support northerly gale-force
winds over the western Gulf of Mexico beginning around 1200 UTC
this morning. The gale-force winds will then become confined to
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Seas will build to 8
to 14 feet through the day today. Please read the Atlantic high
seas forecast, that is listed under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

The tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building
north of the Caribbean and lower pressure associated with
climatological low pressure over Colombia will support gale-force
winds over portions of the south central Caribbean beginning 0600
UTC Monday morning, persisting until 1800 UTC Monday. Please read
the Atlantic high seas forecast, that is listed under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends westward from the African coast near
07N12W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 04N30W to
05N40W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 14N
between 11W and 32W and from the equator to 13N between 38W and
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends from high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic
across Florida and westward to the west central Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, low pressure over the mid Mississippi Valley supports a
cold front that is rapidly moving southeastward over the
northwestern Gulf. South of the front, mainly moderate to fresh
south to southeasterly winds cover the Gulf basin. Near-gale to
gale-force northerly winds are developing northwest of the front.
Please refer to the special features section regarding details of
this gale event. The cold front will move quickly toward the
central Gulf today and stall out from south Florida to the
southwestern Gulf Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers will also
be possible along this front through tonight.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades cover much of the central and Eastern
Caribbean this morning with locally strong to near-gale force
winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia
and Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the
Caribbean. No deep convection is currently observed over the
basin. Scattered showers are embedded in the trades streaming
across the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward
Islands. Over the next 24 hours, high pressure building north of
the Caribbean will help to increase trades slightly over the
region, resulting in gale-force winds developing over portions of
the south central Caribbean tonight. Please refer to the special
features section for more details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Deep-layer high pressure will maintain a relatively quiet weather
pattern over the island for the next several days. Subsident air
aloft will produce drying over the area tonight through Tuesday
with only a few passing showers in the trade wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends SW from 31N42W to 25N66W. An
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is present along and up to
150 nm north of this front. High pressure centered near the
Azores will be reinforced by a new high pressure ridge moving
eastward from the northwest Atlantic through tonight. The
resultant ridge will continue to dominate the remainder of the
Central and Eastern Atlantic through the early part of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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