[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico early this
morning. Strong high pressure over the plains states will drive
the front quickly southward through the western Gulf today. North
winds are expected to rapidly reach gale force over the western
Gulf of Mexico behind the front beginning at 1200 UTC this
morning. The gale-force winds will become confined to the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Seas will build to 8 to 13
feet from these winds by this evening. Please read the Atlantic
high seas forecast, that is listed under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

The tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building
north of the Caribbean and lower pressure associated with
climatological low pressure over Colombia will support gale-force
winds over portions of the south central Caribbean beginning 0600
UTC Monday morning, persisting until 1800 UTC Monday. Please read
the Atlantic high seas forecast, that is listed under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends westward from the African coast from
near 08N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 03N40W
to 05N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are
from 01N to 15N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03N to 13N between 22W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends from high pressure over the western Atlantic
across Florida and westward to the west central Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, low pressure over the mid Mississippi Valley supports a
cold front that is rapidly approaching the Texas coast. These
features support mainly moderate to fresh south to southeasterly
winds over the entire Gulf basin early tonight. The cold front
will cross the northwestern Gulf late tonight with Gale force
winds developing northwest of the front. Please refer to the
special features section regarding details of this gale event. The
cold front will move quickly toward the central Gulf today and
stall out from northern Florida to the southwestern Gulf late
tonight. Scattered to numerous showers will also be possible along
this front through tonight.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades cover much of the central and Eastern
Caribbean tonight with locally strong to near-gale force winds
over the south central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia and
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the
Caribbean. No deep convection is currently observed over the
basin. Scattered showers are embedded in the trades streaming
across the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward
Islands. Over the next 24 hours, high pressure building north of
the Caribbean will help to increase trades slightly over the
Caribbean, resulting in gale-force winds developing over portions
of the south central Caribbean. Please refer to the special
features section for more details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Deep-layer high pressure will maintain a relatively quiet weather
pattern over the island for the next several days. Subsident air
aloft will produce drying over the area tonight through Tuesday
with only a few passing showers in the trade wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends SW from 31N43W to 23N74W. An
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is present along and up to
120 nm north of this front. High pressure centered near the
Azores will be reinforced by a new cell moving eastward from north
America. The resultant ridge will continue to dominate the
remainder of the Central and Eastern Atlantic through the early
part of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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