[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will cross the western Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. High pressure behind the front will support Gale force
winds over portions of the western Gulf beginning early Sunday
morning. The Gale will become confined to the southwestern Gulf by
Sunday night. Please refer to the Atlantic high seas forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the coast of Western Africa near 05N09W
and continues over the eastern Atlantic to near 04N15W, there the
intertropical convergence zone axis continues to 02N30W to 02N40W
to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 10N
between 07W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure inland over the central United States supports a warm
front that extends over the northern Gulf from the Louisiana
Coast near 30N93W to 27N92W. High pressure centered just east of
the United States mid Atlantic coast has an axis that extends
across northern Florida and to the southwestern Gulf. This pattern
supports moderate to fresh southerly winds over the north central
and western Gulf, and gentle to moderate east to southeasterly
winds over the remainder of the Gulf. The return flow currently
taking place will continue until a cold front crosses the
northwestern Gulf beginning early Sunday. Gale force northerly
winds are forecast to develop behind this cold front. Please see
the special features section for more details on this gale.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A center of low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough S of
Panama supports scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms
across the SW Caribbean W of 77W, including Panama, Costa Rica,
Nicaragua and E Honduras. Strong high pressure emerging from the
United States over the western Atlantic waters along with local
geography over Colombia supports fresh to strong NE to E winds
from 11N to 13N between 73W and 78W. This area of winds will
amplify and expand northward and across the SW and E Caribbean
Saturday through Sunday as the strong ridge continues to move east
over the W Atlantic waters. Gentle to moderate NE to E flow
continues to cover the NW Caribbean waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough will stall out over the region tonight bringing
scattered showers to the area through today. Strong dry air
subsidence from aloft will allow for some drying over the area for
the remainder weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the western Atlantic and a surface low over
the north central Atlantic support a cold front that enters the
area of discussion near 31N53W and extends to 26N62W where it
transitions to a stationary front to 22N79W. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds are north of this front to 27N. Isolated moderate
convection is within 300 nm east of the front north of 27N.
A surface trough extends from 24N63W to the Dominican Republic
near 19N72W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of either side of
the trough axis. High pressure centered near the Azores dominates
the remainder of the Central and Eastern Atlantic. Over the next
24 hours the stationary front will dissipate while the cold front
continues east.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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