[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The intertropical convergence zone axis begins off the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 06N10W and continues along 04N20W to 02N30W
to 05N37W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered to
isolated moderate convection is from 03S to 10N between 08W and
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high over E Virginia
extends an axis SW across the Florida Peninsula and across the
Gulf of Mexico, thus providing gentle to moderate return flow to
three quarters of the basin. In the NW basin, fresh SE flow
dominates ahead of an area of low pressure that starts to move
into the area. Surface observations in this region of the basin
indicate the presence of haze N of 27N W of 94W being supported by
shallow moisture advected from the Caribbean. The area of low
pressure to move across the basin this weekend will be accompanied
with a strong cold front that will exit the coast of Texas
Saturday morning. Gale force S winds associated with the front
are expected at 1200 UTC Saturday from 24N to 28N between 94W and
97W. Gale winds will continue through Sunday night as the front
continue to move across the basin. Showers are expected to develop
in the vicinity of the front as well.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A center of low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough S of
Panama support scattered to isolated showers across the SW
Caribbean W of 77W, including Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and E
Honduras. Patches of shallow moisture are across the E and central
Caribbean, thus supporting passing showers tonight. Strong high
pressure moving over W Atlc waters along with local geography over
Colombia support fresh to near gale NE to E winds S of 13N between
73W and 78W. This area of winds will amplify N and across the SW
and E Caribbean Saturday through Sunday as the strong ridge
continue to move over W Atlantic waters. Gentle to moderate NE to
E flow covers the NW Caribbean waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough ahead of a cold front in the SW N Atlc waters
will move across the Island tonight bringing passing showers.
Strong dry air subsidence from aloft will support fair weather for
the remainder weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over SW N Atlantic waters extending from a system
of low pressure over NW Atlc waters. The front, which is being
supported by a middle to upper level trough, is along 30N55W to
24N70W where it stalls extending to 21N77W. Shallow moisture in
the vicinity of the front may support isolated showers tonight.
Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 24N64W to 18N67W
with isolated showers. A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1036 mb
high SE of the Azores covers the remainder basin, thus supporting
stable and fair weather conditions. The front is forecast to move
to central Atlantic waters tonight, then will move N of the
forecast waters by Sunday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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