[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will cross the western Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. High pressure behind the front will support gale force
northerly winds over portions of the western Gulf of Mexico beginning
Sunday morning. The gale will then become confined to the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday night. Please refer to the
Atlantic high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the coast of Western Africa near 06N10W
and continues over the eastern Atlantic to near 04N15W, where the
intertropical convergence zone axis continues to 02N30W to 02N40W
to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 10N
between 07W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered just east of the United States mid
Atlantic coast has an axis that extends across northern Florida
and to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern supports
moderate to fresh southerly winds over the north central and
western Gulf, and gentle to moderate east to southeasterly winds
over the remainder of the Gulf, except locally fresh to strong
southerly winds briefly this morning over the northwest Gulf. The
return flow pattern currently taking place will continue until a
cold front crosses the northwestern Gulf beginning early Sunday.
Gale force northerly winds are forecast to develop behind this
cold front. Please see the special features section for more
details on this gale.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough south of Panama
supports scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across
the southwest Caribbean west of 77W, including Panama, Costa
Rica, Nicaragua and E Honduras. Strong high pressure emerging from
the United States over the western Atlantic waters along with
local geography over Colombia supports fresh to strong NE to E
winds from 11N to 13N between 73W and 78W. This area of winds will
amplify and expand northward and across the southwest and eastern
Caribbean today through Sunday as the strong ridge continues to
move east over the western Atlantic waters. Gentle to moderate NE
to E flow continues to cover the NW Caribbean waters.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough over the region is bringing scattered showers to
the area. This trough will persist over the area through today.
Then, strong dry air subsidence from aloft will allow for some
drying over the area tonight and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the western Atlantic and a surface low over
the north central Atlantic support a cold front that enters the
area of discussion near 31N49W and extends to 25N63W where it
transitions to a stationary front to 23N77W. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds are north of this front to 27N. Isolated moderate
convection is within 360 nm east of the front north of 26N. A
surface trough extends from 23N66W to the Dominican Republic near
19N72W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of either side of the
trough axis. High pressure centered near the Azores dominates the
remainder of the Central and Eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24
hours the stationary front will dissipate while the cold front
continues east.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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