[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent entering the
Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W. The
ITCZ begins from that point and continues along 02N24W to 02N32W.
A surface trough is west of the ITCZ extending from 06N35W to
01N36W. Scattered to isolated moderate convection is from 0N to
07N E of 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level trough with base over central Mexico
extends to the NW Gulf of Mexico, thus supporting a stationary
front that extends along the coast of Texas. The GOES IFR show
medium probability of fog off the coast of Texas and adjacent
waters, however surface observations indicate the presence of it N
of 26N W of 93W. This traduces to visibility less than 3 miles.
Mariners and boaters in this region should exercise caution. A
broad surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic extends an
axis SW across the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf to near 93W.
This is providing light variable flow E of 93W and gentle SE flow
over the remainder western basin. Except for the foggy/hazy area
in the NW Gulf, the remainder basin in under fair weather
conditions being supported by strong dry air subsidence from
aloft. The stationary front along Texas will become a cold front
early Wed morning, moving across Florida Thu into early Fri
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level anticyclone centered S of Dominican Republic
provides a diffluent environment over the W Caribbean W of 80W.
Low to middle level moisture associated with the passage of a
center of low pressure across Nicaragua along with the diffluence
aloft continue to support scattered heavy showers and isolated
tstms S of 20N W of 80W. The convection in the SW basin is also
being supported by the monsoonal flow that extends from Costa Rica
to northern Colombia. Passing showers are noted over the NE
Caribbean over the Leeward Islands, across Puerto Rico and the
Mona Passage. Fair weather is across the remainder basin being
supported by strong dry air subsidence from aloft. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to near gale force E winds over the central
Caribbean between 70W and 78W due in part to the strong high
pressure over the central Atlantic. Convection over the W
Caribbean is forecast to cease by Wednesday. A center of low
pressure is forecast to develop over the SW basin Wed morning with
associated trough.

...HISPANIOLA...

Passing showers are across the Island associated with a patch of
shallow moisture. Fresh to strong winds are over coastal and
adjacent waters of the Island due to strong high pressure over the
central Atlantic. These showers are forecast to continue through
Tue night as another patch of moisture currently over the NE
Caribbean makes its way westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A diffluent environment aloft between the upper trough across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and the NW periphery of the anticyclone
anchored in the Caribbean support heavy showers and tstms in the
vicinity of a surface trough that extends from 31N75W to the E
coast of Florida near 27N80W. This convection concentrates from
27N to 32N between 70W and 80W with isolated showers extending
across the Bahamas. A broad surface ridge dominate the remainder
SW and central Atlc waters anchored by a 1031 mb high N of the
area. Ahead of the ridge a cold front extends from 30N34W to
25N51W where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N61W. No
showers associated with it.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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