[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 PM EST MON DEC 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent entering the
Atlantic Ocean through Liberia near 06N10W to 05N12W. The ITCZ
begins from that point to 03N22W to 03N33W. A surface trough was
analyzed west of the ITCZ extending from 06N33W to 03N34W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of
the ITCZ and trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the whole basin anchored by a 1033
mb high centered over the western Atlantic, a 1020 mb high
centered over the Florida panhandle, and a 1016 mb high located
over eastern Mexico near 21N98W. Scatterometer data depicts a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. The ridge will
likely persist through Wednesday. The next cold front is forecast
to reach the northeast Gulf by late Wednesday followed by another
strong high pressure system. This will result in increasing
northeast winds mainly across the northern half of the basin on
Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the southwest
Caribbean associated with a 1010 mb surface low pressure
currently located in west Nicaragua near 12N86W. The strongest
convection is observed south of 18N between 82W-87W affecting
Honduras, Nicaragua as well as their adjacent waters. To the east
of this activity, the Monsoon Trough extends along 10N between
76W-83W with scattered moderate convection between 78W-83W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1033 mb high centered in the western Atlantic.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Expect for the surface low to continue moving west away
from the basin. The convection will dissipate over the southwest
Caribbean. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island. Light showers could
occur this afternoon due to local effects. Little change is
expected within the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the western portion of the basin
anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 35N58W. A frontal system
extends across the west-central Atlantic analyzed as a stationary
front from 23N62W to 25N53W then as a cold front from that point
to 31N37W. Light showers are observed along the cold front. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1025 mb surface high near 34N20W. A similar weather
scenario will continue through the next 24hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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