[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1202 AM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N22W to 02N37W to 01N50W. A surface trough remains embedded
within the ITCZ along 37W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 01N-08N between 10W-42W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-southwesterly flow aloft is occurring over the Gulf basin
this evening with water vapor imagery indicating mostly dry air
and subsidence providing overall fair sky conditions. At the
surface...a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high centered
across the NE Gulf waters near 29N85W continues to further support
the tranquil conditions...however a stationary front remains
analyzed from southern Mississippi to eastern Texas near 30N94W
then along the Texas coast to near Corpus Christi. Mostly gentle
to occasional moderate southerly winds are expected through
Tuesday night when the stationary front will begin moving as a
cold front across the northern half of the basin and eventually
into the SW North Atlc region by Thursday night. Brief fresh to
strong N-NE winds are expected across the NW Gulf waters Thursday
morning in association with the frontal passage.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
eastern Caribbean near 16N69W with water vapor imagery indicating
mostly dry air E of 77W and increased cloudiness and moisture W of
77W. As tropical moisture advects northwestward then northward
within the western periphery of the upper level ridging over the
western Caribbean...widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring mostly S of 20N between 80W-90W...including portions
of Central America and the NW Caribbean waters. Farther east...
mostly clear skies prevail with only a few quick-moving low-
topped isolated showers occurring in the vicinity of the Lesser
Antilles...Puerto Rico...and portions of Hispaniola. Trades are
expected to remain in the fresh to strong range through early
Wednesday and then decrease slightly as the regional pressure
gradient relaxes across the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Passing isolated showers are across the island this evening
associated with very shallow moisture. Fresh to strong trade
winds are also occurring across the island and the adjacent
coastal waters due to strong high pressure anchored in the
central Atlc. These conditions are expected through Wednesday
when surface high pressure will shift eastward and the pressure
gradient relaxes across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc region this evening with overall troughing extending from
over Nova Scotia Canada S-SW to over the northern Florida
peninsula. This troughing supports a cold front analyzed across
the western North Atlc waters to the South Carolina coast near
33N79W. Pre-frontal surface troughing extends from 32N74W SW to
near 29N79W and is providing focus for scattered showers and
widely scattered tstms from 27N-34N between 64W-77W. The cold
front will move eastward and skirt N of 30N through Tuesday night
moving into the central North Atlc waters thereafter. Across the
central Atlc...a surface ridge influences much of the area
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 34N51W. Within the
eastern and southern periphery of the ridging...a weakening
frontal boundary extends as a cold front from 32N31W SW to
26N47W...then as a dissipating stationary front westward to
25N63W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm either side of
the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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