[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent entering the
Atlantic Ocean through Liberia near 07N11W to 05N18W. The ITCZ
axis begins at 05N18W and extends through 04N30W to 06N40W. A
surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ extending from 10N42W
to 03N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of
02N to the coast of Africa between 05W and 09W. Similar convection
is within 75 nm S of axis between 29W and 31W, and from 01N to 03N
between 34W and 37W. Isolated showers are near the trough axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located NE of the region extends a ridge across the
SE CONUS and the Gulf of Mexico into central Mexico with a 1020 mb
high pressure inland between Tampico and Tuxpan Mexico. The
remnants of a frontal boundary remains across the SE Gulf
stretching from across the Straits of Florida to 23N88W to 21N93W.
The most recent scatterometer pass showed the presence of a
surface trough across the SW Gulf, extending from near Tampico
Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Under this
weather pattern, fresh to locally strong southerly flow has
developed over the NW Gulf, while fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are noted over the eastern Gulf north of the
frontal boundary to about 26N. Multilayered clouds with embedded
showers and isolated tstms are over the SW Gulf. The high pressure
located NE of the area will continue to slide eastward with a
1020 mb high pressure developing over the NE Gulf on Monday. This
system will likely persist through Wednesday. The next cold front
is forecast to reach the N and NE Gulf Wednesday night followed
by another strong high pressure system. This will result in
increasing N-NE winds, mainly across the N waters on Thursday.
Aloft, an upper-level trough is over the NW Gulf. Southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough dominates the remainder of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the SW
Caribbean associated with a surface low pressure located near
10N81W. The strongest convection associated with this system is
currently over waters, affecting mainly the area from 12N to
15.5N between 79W and 83W. A well defined diffluent pattern aloft
is helping to induce this convective activity. Computer model
indicates that all this moisture will spread across northern
central America and the Gulf of Honduras on Monday and will likely
persist on Tuesday. Locally heavy rain, with the potential of
flash flooding and mudslides could occur over parts of northern
Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through Monday.

Fresh to strong trades are blowing over the south-central
Caribbean based on scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades
are noted across the remainder of the central Caribbean and
eastern part of basin while mainly moderate NE winds are observed
over the NW Caribbean. These winds will persist over the next
couple of days, and are forecast to diminish by Wednesday as high
pressure N of area moves eastward and slightly weakens.

...HISPANIOLA...

Moisture is expected to diminish on Monday as the inverted trough
currently located just north of the island continues to moves
westward. Another patch of moisture will approach from the east on
Tuesday. Light showers could occur on Monday mainly in the
afternoon due to local effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends across the western and
central Atlantic from 31N47W to 26N60W to 25N70W to the Straits of
Florida. A broken band of cloudiness with isolated showers is
associated with the front, forecast to dissipate across the
waters W of 65W tonight into Monday. Strong high pressure in the
wake of the front supports fresh to strong easterly winds S of
28N W of 65W. These winds will gradually diminish through
Tuesday. East of the front, a pair of 1025 mb high pressure areas
are located near 29N39W and near 32N24W with a ridge across the
Tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are seen
across the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly S of 21N.
A ridge will continue to dominate the waters between west Africa
and the Lesser Antilles, with fresh to strong trades W of about
40W Monday and Monday night. An upper-level low is spinning
between the Madeira and the Canary Islands generating isolated
showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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