[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent entering the
Atlantic Ocean through Liberia near 07N11W to 05N18W. The ITCZ
axis begins from 05N18W and extends through 04N30W to 06N40W. A
surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ extending from 10N42W
to 03N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is N of
02N to the coast of Africa between 05W and 09W. Similar convection
is within 75 nm S of axis between 29W and 31W, and from 01N to 03N
between 34W and 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located NE of the region extends a ridge across the
SE CONUS into the Gulf and much of the Gulf waters into central
Mexico, while the remnants of a frontal boundary remains across
the SE Gulf stretching from across the Straits of Florida to
23N88W to 21N93W. The most recent scatterometer pass showed the
presence of a surface trough across the SW Gulf, extending from
near Tampico Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche near 19N95W.
Under this weather pattern, fresh to locally strong southerly flow
has developed over the NW Gulf while fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are noted over the eastern Gulf north of the
frontal boundary to about 26N. Multilayered clouds with embedded
showers are over the SW Gulf. The high located NE of area will
continue to slide eastward with a 1020 mb high pressure developing
over the NE Gulf on Monday. This system will persist through
Wednesday. The next cold front is forecast to reach the N and NE
Gulf wed night followed by another strong high pressure system.
This will result in increasing N-NE winds mainly across the N
waters on Thursday. Aloft, a trough is over the NW Gulf.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough dominates the remainder of
the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the SW
Caribbean associated with a surface low pressure located near
10N81W. The strongest convection associated with this system is
currently over waters, affecting mainly the area from 12N to
15.5N between 79W and 83W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity. Computer model indicates that all
this moisture will spread across northern central America and the
Gulf of Honduras on Monday and will persist on Tuesday. Locally
heavy rain with the potential of flash flooding and mudslides
could occur over parts of northern Costa Rica, Nicaragua and
Honduras through Monday. Fresh to strong trades are blowing over
the south- central Caribbean based on scatterometer data. Moderate
to fresh trades are noted across the remainder of the central
Caribbean and eastern part of basin while mainly moderate NE winds
are observed over the NW Caribbean. These winds will persist over
the next couple of days, and are forecast to diminish by Wednesday
as high pressure N of area moves eastward and slightly weakens.

...HISPANIOLA...

Moisture are expected to diminish on Monday as the inverted trough
currently located just north of the island continues to moves
westward. Another patch of moisture will approach from the east on
Tuesday. Light showers could occur on Monday mainly in the afternoon
due to local effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends across the western and
central Atlantic from 31N47W to 26N60W to 25N70W to the Straits of
Florida. A broken band of cloudiness with isolated showers is
associated with the front forecast to dissipate across the waters
W of 65W tonight into Monday. Strong high pressure in the wake of
the front supports fresh to strong easterly winds S of 28N. These
winds will gradually diminish through Tuesday. East of the front,
a pair of 1025 mb high pressure areas are located near 29N39W and
near 32N24W with a ridge across the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are seen across the southern periphery of
the ridge, particularly S of 21N. A ridge will continue to
dominate the waters between west Africa and the Lesser Antilles
with fresh to strong trades W of about 40W Monday and Monday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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