[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N23W and
02N33W, to the Equator along 40W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward
from 50W eastward, in disorganized precipitation.

A surface trough is along 43W/44W from 02N to 09N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N to
10N between 40W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through Louisiana to the coast of
Mexico about 200 nm to the south of the border with Texas. A
cold front is in Texas now, from 32N to 33N, between 96W and
103W. Upper level SW wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, to the east of the trough. An upper level trough is
moving through the central U.S.A.  A cold front is in Texas now,
from 32N to 33N, between 96W and 103W. The cold front is
forecast to reach the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast in about 24
hours or so. The forecast for 48 hours and 72 hours is for the
front to become stationary. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 300 nm to
the north of the line that passes through 29N80W 25N90W 21N98W.

A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas to 26N80W.
Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible precipitation are to the north of 25N between 70W
in the Atlantic Ocean and 86W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through north central Georgia, across the
Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to a
1018 mb high pressure center that is near 20N97W along the coast
of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from 25N southward from 90W
westward, in an area of a surface trough during the last 24
hours.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KVOA.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KHHV, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KVQT, KGHB, KATP, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Harlingen. MVFR in Port Isabel. MVFR in
Hebbronville, at the NAS in Kingsville. IFR at the NAS in Corpus
Christi, and in Rockport, and in Victoria. MVFR in Port Lavaca.
MVFR at the Intercontinental Airport in Houston. IFR in Tomball.
light rain and MVFR in Conroe. MVFR in Huntsville. MVFR in
Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Port Fourchon. MISSISSIPPI: IFR in
the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Biloxi. LIFR in
Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR/MVFR in the Mobile metropolitan area.
IFR in Evergreen. MVFR in Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR from Destin and
Crestview westward. rain has ended for the moment in
Apalachicola. IFR in Sarasota and Punta Gorda. LIFR in the Ft.
Myers metropolitan area, and in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the west of the line that
runs from 11N75W at the coast of Colombia, to 17N81W, to the
Gulf of Honduras. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is curving
away from the area of cyclonic wind flow, toward Cuba and
Hispaniola. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 11N83W, along
the SE coast of Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 18N between
80W and 87W,covering parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and the
coastal waters of each country.

Upper level SE wind flow is moving through the Caribbean Sea,
to the south of Hispaniola, crossing 70W, moving toward Jamaica.
Upper level NE wind flow covers the area that is between 60W and
65W. Upper level SE wind flow covers the area also that is
between 65W and 70W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery between 60W and 70W.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
12/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough is along 23N71W 21N72W 18N72W in Haiti. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow is moving around Hispaniola.
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across
Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in
areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. Isolated
moderate from 20N to 25N between 69W and 76W, in the waters that
are around the SE Bahamas, and to the north of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana:
VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N42W to 26N60W, across the
NW Bahamas, to the Florida coast near 26N60W. Convective
precipitation: Rainshowers are possible to the north of the line
that passes through 32N35W 23N50W 20N70W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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