[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 48-hour forecast consists of a cold front along 28N82W to
28N90W to 25N96.5W to 21.5N97.5W. Expect N-to-NE gale-force
winds and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet, to the NW
of the cold front to 28N to the W of 91W.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to
04N30W, 05N40W, and 09N49W. Convective precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong within 60 nm on either side of 08N42W 10N46W
12N50W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere
from 10N southward from 50W eastward.

A surface trough is along 53W/54W from 16N southward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N southward between 50W
and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO,
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level supporting trough for the frontal boundary from
24 hours ago has moved to the NE of the area. Upper level SW
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through
NE Florida, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, and the south
central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary in the
south central Gulf of Mexico, and it continues to 20N95W. A
squall line is from 180 nm to 240 nm to the east of the cold
front, from 27N to 31N. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from the NE Bahamas to 28N between
76W and 79W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of 26N81W
22N88W 20N89W 15N90W. This precipitation extends from the SW
corner of Florida, to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula,
into southern Guatemala.

A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 26N93W. Surface high
pressure covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW
of the frontal boundary.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH, KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Brownsville, Port Isabel, and Harlingen for: fog
and mist and low visibilities. MVFR in Edinburg and McAllen for
visibility. MVFR at the Houston Hobby Airport. IFR in Conroe and
Huntsville for cloud ceilings. MVFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur for
a cloud ceiling. LIFR in Jasper for a cloud ceiling. LOUISIANA:
LIFR in the Lake Charles for cloud ceiling. IFR in Lafayette and
New Iberia, in Patterson and Baton Rouge. IFR around Lake
Pontchartrain for cloud ceilings. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR for cloud
ceilings, right along the coast, except for IFR in Gulfport. IFR
for cloud ceilings from Natchez to McComb to Hattiesburg.
ALABAMA: MVFR from Mobile to Gulf Shores, and from Evergreen to
Fort Rucker and Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR for cloud ceilings from
Pensacola to Milton and to Crestview. mist in Cross City. LIFR
for visibility at the Tampa Executive Airport. MVFR for mist, a
cloud ceiling, and visibility at the St. Pete/Clearwater
International Airport. MVFR for visibility in Sarasota and Punta
Gorda. IFR for cloud ceiling in Fort Myers. IFR for cloud
ceiling at the NAS in Key West. MVFR for a cloud ceiling at the
Key West International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the E and SE of the
line that runs from the islands of the NE corner of the area, to
15N71W, to 12N77W, and to 09N78W along the coast of Panama.
Upper level NE wind flow covers the area that is between the
cyclonic wind flow and 83W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high
pressure center, that is near 26N62W, across the Bahamas and
Cuba, toward the Gulf of Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 76W at the coast of
Colombia beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 10N
southward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
07/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level
clouds. Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level
clouds, from 13N northward between 60W and 84W, in surface
easterly wind flow.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti AT 07/0300
UTC: VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona:
VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana: VFR/no
ceiling. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago and Puerto Plata:
VFR/no ceiling.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 33W from 28N beyond 32N.
The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N24W
to 27N30W and 25N40W. A dissipating stationary front continues
from 25N40W to 22N50W and 19N60W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 30N northward
between 20W and 26W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 19N
northward from 60W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
W and NW of the cold front/dissipating stationary front. It is
moving around a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 26N62W.

A surface ridge is to the east of the cold front/surface trough.
The ridge passes through 32N15W, to 27N22W, to 22N33W, and to
16N45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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