[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Dec 6 17:44:21 CST 2016

AXNT20 KNHC 062343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING through the next 24 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 05N27W to 06N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 02N-10N between 20W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level low over N Minnesota extends a trough SE to the NE
Gulf coastline, supporting a frontal system that extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to 24N90W as a cold front then from
that point to 19N95W as a stationary front. Ahead of the cold front,
a squall line extends from 28N83W to 25N87W. The convection
associated to the squall line is observed from 24N-27N and east of
85W affecting the Florida Peninsula. West of the fronts, a 1015
mb high is centered near 25N95W, which along with strong dry air
subsidence from aloft supports stable and fair weather. This high
also supports a light and variable wind flow across the western
portion of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
northerly winds north of 28N west of the cold front to 91W with
seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh southwesterly flow dominates the
area east of the front. The cold front will continue moving across
the Gulf stalling by early Wednesday when fresh to strong flow
will diminish. A new cold front will move into the northwest Gulf
by Wednesday night followed by strong to gale force winds
prevailing through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper-level anticyclone centered south of Cuba and extends
across most of the basin west of 70W. Fair weather prevails across
the basin at this time except near the Monsoon Trough that extends
along 10N between 76W-83W with isolated showers. The surface high
centered in the central Atlantic tightens the gradient across the central
Caribbean supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds between
70W and 80W. These winds are expected to continue during the next
24-48 hours as a surface low develops north of Colombia. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate trades across the remainder of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevail across the island. Isolated showers are
expected to develop on Wednesday in the afternoon hours due to
diurnal heating and orographic lifting.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A squall line extends from the Florida Peninsula to 29N81W to
31N80W. The convection related to this squall line extends from
27N-31N and west of 75W. To the east, a 1020 mb surface high is
centered near 26N64W. A weakening stationary front extends from
19N62W to 24N43W then becomes a cold front from that point to
30N28W. Gale force winds are forecast near the front. Please refer
to the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is
observed north of 26N between 23W-27W. A surface trough extends to
the west of the ITCZ from 15N50W to 07N51W with isolated showers
along it. Expect for the frontal system in the central Atlantic to
weaken and dissipate by Thursday. A new cold front will enter the
west Atlantic tonight and stall and weaken in this area. Another
cold front to move off the SE CONUS by the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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