[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 36-hour forecast consists of a cold front from 30N85W TO 24N97W.
Expect N-to-NE winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale-
force. Sea heights will be building to 10 feet. The 48-hour
forecast consists of a cold front from 25N81W to 23N90W to
21N96W to 19N95W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds  and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet from 21N to 25N to the
west of 96W. Elsewhere to the north of the cold front: N-to-NE
winds 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale-force to the
west of 87W. Sea heights will range from 8 feet to 12 feet to
the west of 87W. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. This is for the forecasts that are
valid until 08/1200 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 05N22W.
A surface trough is along 23W/24W from 02N to 07N. The ITCZ is
along 04N26W, 01N35W, and 03N41W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm to
180 nm on either side of 12N50W 04N38W 03N09W.

A surface trough is along 54W/55W from 07N to 17N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 18N
southward between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO,
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level supporting trough for the frontal boundary from
24 hours ago has moved to the NE of the area. Upper level SW
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through
Florida near Lake Okeechobee, into the south central Gulf of
Mexico. The front becomes stationary in the south central Gulf
of Mexico, and it continues to 19N96W. A surface trough is about
120 nm to the east of the cold front, from 22N to 29N.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from in the Straits of Florida from 24N to 26N between 79W and
83W. Isolated moderate from 26N to 30N between 70W and 76W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from
25N southward.

A second cold front is along the coast, in the NW corner of the
area, from Louisiana to the deep south of Texas. Weak surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the second cold front,
from 25N northward between Florida and 92W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KMDJ, KVOA, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Port Isabel. MVFR in Harlingen. IFR from Weslaco
to Edinburg to McAllen. MVFR in Hebbronville and Falfurrias.
LIFR in Victoria, Port Lavaca, and Palacios, in Bay City, in
Angleton/Lake Jackson. MVFR at the Houston Hobby Airport, at the
Intercontinental Airport, Tomball, in Conroe, and in
Beaumont/Port Arthur. LIFR in Huntsville. IFR in Jasper.
LOUISIANA: IFR in Lake Charles. LIFR in Lafayette and New
Iberia, in Patterson. IFR in Baton Rouge, Galliano, and
Boothville. IFR around the NW corner of Lake Pontchartrain.
LIFR around the NE corner of the Lake. IFR around the southern
side of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: IFR and MVFR right
along the coast. LIFR in Natchez. from MVFR to possible IFR
elsewhere to the east of Natchez, such as in McComb and
Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: IFR and MVFR along the coast. IFR in
Evergreen. MVFR in Fort Rucker and Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR from
Tallahassee westward. LIFR in Perry. LIFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport. MVFR for mist at the MacDill AFB. IFR in Sarasota. MVFR
in Punta Gorda. IFR/MVFR and mist in the Ft. Myers metropolitan
area. LIFR in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the E and SE of the
line that runs from the islands of the NE corner of the area, to
15N71W, to 12N77W, and to 09N78W along the coast of Panama.
Upper level NE wind flow covers the area that is between the
cyclonic wind flow and 83W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high
pressure center, that is near 26N62W, across the Bahamas and
Cuba, to Honduras and Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 76W at the coast of
Colombia beyond NW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: numerous strong from land to 10N
between Colombia and Panama at 79W.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
07/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level
clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona:
VFR/no ceiling. Santo Domingo and La Romana: VFR/no ceiling.
Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1400 feet. Puerto
Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic
circulation center will be in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
and a cyclonic circulation center will be in the SE corner of
the Caribbean Sea, moving toward Hispaniola, during the next two
days. Expect NE wind flow during the next two days. The cyclonic
circulation center will reach Hispaniola by the end of day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an E-to-W oriented
Atlantic Ocean ridge will be just to the north of Hispaniola
during the next two days. The wind flow across Hispaniola will
be from the E-to-NE during much of the next two days. Expect SE
wind flow at the end of the day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge will
be just to the north of Hispaniola during the next two days.
Expect easterly wind flow, with some variations of NE or SE
during the next two days, along with some possible inverted
troughs.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N30W to 26N28W. The
trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N24W to
27N30W and 25N40W. A dissipating stationary front continues from
25N40W to 22N50W and 18N59W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 30N northward from 30W eastward. rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 19N northward from 60W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
W and NW of the cold front/dissipating stationary front. It is
moving around a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 26N62W.

A surface ridge is to the east of the cold front/surface trough.
The ridge passes through 32N12W, across the Canary Islands, to
25N18W, to 22N42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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