[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N34W to 16N31W moving W at 10 kt. A
1008 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 11N and continues
to provide focus for scattered moderate convection occurring from
08N-14N between 28W-38W. The low is expected to move NW during
the next 24-36 hours with further development and organization
anticipated across the central tropical Atlc.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N59W to 22N57N moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with a westward surge of generally low to
middle level moisture as depicted by SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery from 10N-28N between 49W-60W. To the east of this
moisture much drier air with embedded Saharan dust is noted
E-NE to the Canary Islands. Isolated moderate convection is from
from 18N-24N between 55W-60W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N78W to 17N78W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with a maximum in potential vorticity over the
SW Caribbean Sea S of 20N between 76W-83W. Given the favorable low
to middle level dynamics...scattered moderate convection is from
12N-20N between 77W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
13N30W then from 08N34W to 07N42W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone axis extends from 07N42W to 08N50W to 07N55W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical wave...scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 11N-15N between 15W-21W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 39W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from the Arklatex region to the central
Rio Grande River valley near 29N100W providing low-level focus
for scattered showers and tstms across much of SE Texas and the
lower Mississippi River valley this evening. This activity
stretches southward generally W of 90W across the Gulf and east
coast of Mexico. Not only is low-level moisture plentiful on
moderate to occasional fresh SE winds...water vapor imagery
indicates a relatively diffluent environment aloft anchored on an
upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 27N97W. Farther
east...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of east-
northeasterly flow aloft on the western periphery of an upper
level low centered over central Cuba near 23N78W. The push of
easterly flow aloft over the NE Gulf along with low-level
seabreeze interaction is generating scattered showers and tstms
across the Florida peninsula and far NE waters N of 25N E of 84W.
With a ridge axis along 30N well established as the synoptic
pattern...E-SE winds are expected to remain in place through
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the tropical wave analyzed along 78W bringing scattered
showers and tstms to the NW Caribbean and portions of Central
America...the remainder of the basin remains fairly tranquil this
evening. North of the tropical wave convection...peak daytime
heating and instability in tandem with an upper level low centered
over central Cuba near 23N78W is generating scattered showers and
tstms across the island of Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters.
Farther east...mostly clear skies prevail as generally fresh to
strong trades prevail between 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
South-southwesterly flow aloft is noted over the island between an
upper level low centered over central Cuba near 23N78W and an
upper level ridge centered over the central Atlc near 22N59W. A
few low-level isolated showers are possible through the overnight
hours into Wednesday...however mostly fair skies are anticipated
through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across
the SW North Atlc generally W of 76W this evening as strong
easterly flow aloft is noted between an upper level low over
central Cuba near 23N78W and an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered off the coast of the Mid-Atlc near 36N71W.
Otherwise...a trio of 1025 mb highs are anchored along 32N/33N with
the ridge axis extending eastward to the Madeira Islands near
33N17W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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